Land Use Today and Tomorrow – LUsTT
(i) to analyse the multiple natural and societal factors that determine land use as a basis for exploring alternative plausible land use futures, their associated risks to society and ecosystems;
(ii) to identify feasible pathways to the sustainable use of land resources as input to
the national and global policy process.
Specifically, our goals are to
- investigate the socioeconomic and environmental constraints on land use, applying a novel coupled economic-ecological modelling framework;
- assess implications of climate change, and of different socioeconomic scenarios that reflect the flows of trade between nation states within alternative narrative storylines, in relation to two essential land use products: food and energy;
- provide, for the first time, a formalised analysis of land use change in terms of parameter uncertainty based on conditional probabilistic futures;
- integrate normative approaches (based on pre-specified policy targets) into the analysis of plausible land use futures that typically arise from exploratory scenarios;
- become a strategic resource for national science support for policy development and knowledge on issues related to land use for international assessments such as IPCC and GEO.
Funded by FORMAS
Project duration: 2009-2014
Professor Almuth Arneth
Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science